S&P Global Projects Middle East Crude Flows to Remain Below Prewar Levels Through 2027 Amid Ongoing Conflict

On September 11, 2026, S&P Global Energy released a stark forecast: crude oil exports from the Middle East will stay well below pre‑war levels for the next two years, driven by a protracted US‑Iran conflict and persistent maritime disruptions.

The report assumes the war will not end, that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will remain constrained, and that Houthi‑backed forces will keep the Red Sea a risky corridor. Under these conditions, Middle Eastern crude and condensate exports are projected to average between 10 million and 16 million barrels per day (b/d) on a monthly basis through 2027—far below the roughly 20 million b/d seen in January‑February 2026, just before the escalation.

Regional production, meanwhile, is expected to average 21 million b/d over the same period, a full 4.2 million b/d lower than S&P’s earlier projection. The firm stresses that the capacity to produce oil has not been permanently lost; instead, security and logistical constraints are curbing the amount that can reach the market.

"Gulf producers have strong incentives to find ways to move more oil to market and can be expected to adapt around political and security constraints where possible," said Jim Burkhard, vice‑president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy. Burkhard added that the market is not returning to calm but is adjusting to conditions defined by unresolved conflict and persistent maritime risk.

The accompanying price outlook places crude oil in a range of $80‑$100 per barrel through 2027. Dated Brent is expected to average around $90 per barrel—or higher—for the remainder of 2026, and $86 per barrel in 2027, roughly $5 per barrel above the firm’s previous forecast. Brent recently traded above $100 per barrel for the first time since July.

S&P’s short‑term view aligns closely with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) September Short‑Term Energy Outlook, which also projects Brent at roughly $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026. The divergence appears in 2027: the EIA expects Brent to average $74 per barrel for the year, falling to about $67 per barrel in the second half, whereas S&P projects an annual average of $86 per barrel. The $12‑per‑barrel gap reflects differing assumptions about the pace of recovery in Middle Eastern supply. The EIA anticipates that Middle East crude production will return to near pre‑conflict averages by the second quarter of 2027, while S&P does not expect regional production to reach prewar levels by year‑end 2027.

Other forces shape the market. The Russia‑Ukraine war and the US‑Iran conflict have damaged refinery infrastructure and hampered the movement of petroleum products, while China’s reduced seaborne crude purchases and refinery runs have lowered crude demand. S&P estimates global crude demand will average 80.2 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2026, down 4.7 million b/d from a year earlier.

Demand is curtailed not because consumers have vanished but because refiners lack the capacity to process additional barrels. Lower Middle Eastern production supports prices, while refining constraints and relatively low Chinese crude imports limit demand, leaving the market caught between constrained supply and limited refining capacity.

The analysis underscores the enduring impact of geopolitical tensions on global energy markets. As long as the US‑Iran war continues and maritime routes remain disrupted, Middle Eastern crude flows are likely to stay below prewar levels, keeping oil prices higher than they would be in a fully recovered supply environment.

The report was authored by Conglin Xu, Managing Editor‑Economics at Oil & Gas Journal, who has been covering worldwide oil and gas market developments since 2012.