Air Freight Volumes Rebound After Holiday Slump, Middle East Conflict Stalls Fuel Price Decline

Global air freight volumes surged in the first week of June, rebounding sharply after a six‑week dip caused by a cluster of public holidays across Europe, the United States and the Middle East. According to WorldACD Market Data, outbound cargo rose 3 % week‑on‑week in the seven days to 7 June, recouping most of the 7 % decline seen the previous week when the European Pentecost holiday, U.S. Memorial Day and the four‑day Eid al‑Adha festival overlapped.

The rebound was strongest in North America and the Middle East. Outbound cargo from North America jumped 16 % week‑on‑week, while volumes from the Middle East and South Asia climbed 13 %. Europe added 6 % and Africa 3 %. In contrast, Asia Pacific and Central and South America each fell 2 %. Over the two‑week holiday window, Middle East and South Asia outbound cargo fell 13 %, and Africa fell 12 %, outpacing the single‑digit declines elsewhere.

Asia Pacific traffic showed mixed results. Tonnage to North America rose 3 % over the two‑week comparison, buoyed by steady growth in e‑commerce shipments and exports of artificial‑intelligence equipment from Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs. However, flows to Europe fell 6 % week‑on‑week, with double‑digit declines from Malaysia (‑24 %), Vietnam (‑16 %), Taiwan (‑11 %) and Singapore (‑10 %). Exports to the United States remained broadly flat, as higher volumes from Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea offset falls from Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Japan.

On an annual basis, total cargo weight in week 23 was 6 % above the same week in 2025, though the comparison is distorted by the calendar – Pentecost and Eid al‑Adha fell two weeks later in 2025 than this year. The previous year’s equivalent post‑holiday recovery week showed a 2 % rise, broadly matching this year’s rebound.

Capacity also recovered but remains well below pre‑war levels. Global belly and freighter capacity rose 1 % in week 23, led by an 8 % increase from the Middle East and South Asia and a 2 % rise from Africa. Capacity from North America dipped 2 %, while other regions were broadly unchanged. Flight movements in and out of the Middle East and South Asia jumped 11 %, recovering from a 5 % fall the week before, and Doha reached its highest capacity level in five weeks. Nevertheless, regional capacity is still 28 % below pre‑war levels, with the Gulf area down 43 % and South Asia down 11 %.

Freight rates slipped 1 % week‑on‑week to an average of $3.24 per kilogram, reflecting easing aviation fuel prices. Rates from Africa fell 10 % and from the Middle East and South Asia by 4 %, while Europe and Central and South America each dipped 1 %. Asia Pacific and North American rates edged up 1 %. Compared with a year ago, rates remain substantially higher – up 33 % globally. Every region recorded double‑digit annual price increases except Central and South America, which rose 9 %. The Middle East and South Asia saw the sharpest annual rise at 47 %, while North America was up 26 %.

Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the United States rose 3 % week‑on‑week, led by Japan (+13 %) and Indonesia (+8 %). China and Vietnam added 3 %, while South Korean rates fell 11 %. Rates to Europe were largely stable, with China gaining 5 % and Thailand falling 6 %.

A new outbreak of fighting in the Middle East during the current week has halted the recent decline in crude prices. Analysts note that the conflict may put upward pressure on fuel and freight costs unless the hostilities are resolved. The slowdown in fuel price gains could offset the recent easing in freight rates, leaving market participants uncertain about the trajectory of air cargo costs.

In summary, global air freight volumes have rebounded from a holiday‑induced trough, with North America and the Middle East leading the recovery. Capacity has improved but remains below pre‑war levels, and freight rates have slipped modestly thanks to lower fuel costs. However, the renewed conflict in the Middle East threatens to stall further price declines, potentially raising fuel and freight costs in the near term.